Finance Xpress

Allocating investments between stocks vs. bonds is one of the most important asset allocation decisions you’ll ever make. Here’s what you need to know.

Understanding the differences between stocks vs bonds is critical to asset allocation. The allocation between stocks and bonds is one of the most significant indicators of the risks and rewards of an investment portfolio. A stock fund buys shares of publicly traded companies, each share representing a small, fractional ownership interest in the company that issued the shares. A bond fund buys bonds issued by the federal government, state and local governments, corporations and other entities. For a stock fund, think of owning part of a public company. For bond funds, think of lending money in exchange for a predetermined interest rate.

Stocks vs. Bonds – The Risk Factor

History tells us two things about stocks vs bonds: (1) Stocks are riskier than bonds, and (2) financial returns of stocks are higher than the returns on bonds. To better understand the risks and rewards of stocks and bonds, think of owning a home. The homeowner owns the equity (stock) in the house, and the bank owns the note (bond) from the money it loaned the homeowner to buy the house. Let’s look at the differences between the homeowner and the bank:

 

Homeowner (stock)	Bank (Bond)
Gets (or loses) any change in value of home	Gets interest payments only
Assumes risk the house will go down in value	Interest payments not affected by value of house
Assumes risk the house will be damaged	Interest payments not affect by damage or even destruction of home
If home is sold, must pay the bank first	If home is sold, gets paid first

The last point is important, and is one reason why stocks are riskier than bonds. The bondholders always get paid first, and the stockholders get whatever is left. Now let’s look at some numbers. Here are the annualized returns of U.S. stocks and government bonds during the 20th century as reported in William Bernstein’s, The Four Pillars of Investing:

Stocks vs. Bonds – The Returns

Now, one could see this chart and decide never to buy a bond fund. After all, why invest in something that returns less than stocks? We examine this question in more detail in the article on allocating assets between stock and bonds, but let me leave you with a chart taken from The Boglehead’s Guide to Investing, which shows various returns from the recent period 2000-2002:

 

Allocation	Total Gain or Loss	Ending Value of $1,000
100% Total Stock Mkt.	-37%	$628
80% stocks/20% bonds	-26%	$742
60% stocks/40% bonds	-13%	$870
40% stocks/60% bonds	+1%	$1,011
20% stocks/80% bonds	+17%	$1,165
100% Total Bond Mkt.	+33%	$1,335

Stocks and Bonds – Where To Buy Them

Purchasing stocks can be done easily through either a broker or a robo advisor. For brokers we’re currently recommending TD Ameritrade – which offers both services, and an easy way of switching back and forth between the self-directed and managed options. To read our full review of TD Ameritrade, click here – or visit their website directly.

If you’re sure you want to go with a robo advisor, M1 Finance is offering a great package. No management fees, a low minimum starting balance, and the ability to pick individual stocks or ETFs. To read our full review of M1 Finance, click here – or visit their website directly.

To buy bonds, visit TreasuryDirect. This government website is kind of ugly but it’s the simplest way of buying government bonds directly from the issuer, Uncle Sam.

Tomorrow–Day 2: Large Cap v. Mid Cap v. Small Cap Funds

So as you build your own asset allocation plan, remember that how much you invest in stocks vs bonds is one of the most important investing decisions you will make.

Topics: Asset Allocation

The post Stocks vs Bonds: Find The Perfect Mix appeared first on The Dough Roller.

via Finance Xpress

Posted by: Adam McCann

Backed Review Summary: Backed offers personal loans of up to $25,000 for 1 to 3 years, with APRs ranging from 2.90% to 15.99%. The company’s name stems from the important role “backers” play in their loan process. A backer is pretty much the same thing as a co-signer, but there is one key difference. Backed notifies backers immediately after a missed payment and gives them 15 days to bring the account back to good standing before charging a late fee. According to Backed, co-signers traditionally don’t get notified until the main accountholder is 30-days past due.

While Backed encourages backers if you want the highest approval odds and the lowest rates, it’s also possible to apply for a loan by yourself. Backers must have a 720+ credit score. People applying by themselves need a 660+ credit score. And if you have a backer, your score can be a lot lower.

To get a loan from Backed, you also need to live in one of the six states the company operates in right now: New York, New Jersey, Florida, West Virginia, Arkansas and Arizona. Below, you can find more information on their terms and see comparable offers from other lenders.

Backed Loans Terms

APRs	2.90% - 15.99%
Loan lengths	1, 2 or 3 years
Loan amounts	$3,000 - $25,000
Approval time	1 business day
Funds delivery time	Usually within 5 business days (no more than 2 weeks)
Origination fee	0.8% - 2.0%
Fee for late payments	$20 (after 15-day grace period)
Credit score requirement	660
Minimum income requirement	$18,000
Other requirements (all must apply)	18+ years old U.S. citizen or permanent resident SSN No recent derogatory item on credit report
States that Backed services	NY, NJ, FL, WV, AR, AZ

Backed Loan Interest Rates & Fees

Backed personal loans have a remarkably low interest rate range, going from 2.90% to 15.99%. The better your credit score and income, the lower your rate will be. Having a “backer,” or a co-signer, with better credit and/or income than you can also help you qualify for lower rates. Backed offers fixed-rate personal loans. In other words, your rate won’t change during the payoff period.

Backed does charge an origination fee of 0.8% to 2.0%. But that’s a much lower range than most lenders with origination fees charge. Backed also charges a late fee of $20, but only if you’re 15 days late on making a payment. Backed does not charge a fee for paying off a loan earlier than required.

Backed Personal Loan Requirements & Application Info

Backed only offers individual personal loans to people who have credit scores of 660 or higher and earn at least $18,000 per year. You must also have “no recent derogatory item,” such as a late payment, on your credit report. However, if you want to have a “backer” (co-signer) on your loan, you may be able to get approved if you have a score lower than 660 and/or an income of less than $18,000. The backer will need to have at least a 720 credit score and an income of at least $50,000.

Personal loans from Backed are only available in six states: NY, NJ, FL, WV, AR and AZ. However, that only goes for the main holder of the loan. Backed accepts backers who live in any state. To take out a loan with Backed, you need to be at least 18 years old and a U.S. citizen or permanent resident with a Social Security number.

Backed does have a pre-qualification process that will let you know if you’re likely to get approved for a loan. You’ll just need to enter some personal information, but it won’t lead to a hard pull of your credit and won’t hurt your credit score. Backed only does a hard pull when you actually apply. You can apply for a Backed personal loan online.

Backed Personal Loan Reviews & Transparency

WalletHub searched for objective information on Backed’s reputation by checking with the Better Business Bureau and consulting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau complaints database. However, neither were able to provide any information.

• Better Business Bureau: The BBB says they don’t have enough information to rate Backed, Inc. Backed apparently has not responded to their requests for information.
• WalletHub: WalletHub gives Backed personal loans 4/5 stars.

Backed’s personal loan terms are easy to find online. And Backed is very clear about what credit score it takes to qualify. They could be more transparent by disclosing minimum income requirements.

Backed Personal Loans vs. Popular Competitors

Lender	Backed	SoFi	Marcus by Goldman Sachs
APR	2.90% - 15.99%	5.99% - 16.49%	5.99% - 28.99%
Loan amounts	$3,000 - $25,000	$5,000 - $100,000	$3,500 - $40,000
Loan lengths	1, 2 or 3 years	12 - 84 months	36 - 72 months
Credit score required	No credit required	620	600

*According to multiple third-party sources

Methodology

WalletHub’s rating of Backed personal loans was based on seven categories containing 23 distinct metrics. Read on to see all the categories and a full explanation of all the factors we looked at.

• APR: WalletHub looked into Backed’s lowest and highest interest rates. We also checked whether Backed’s APRs are fixed-rate or variable-rate.
• Requirements: Our editors found out Backed’s credit and income requirements to qualify. We also researched if you need to be a U.S. citizen and what kind of identification you need to have.
• Loan amounts: We checked what amounts of money you’re able to borrow from Backed, and the time periods available to repay your loan.
• Fees: WalletHub looked into whether Backed charges any major fees on their personal loans.
• Application process: Our editors learned how to pre-qualify and what methods are available for applying. We found out how long it takes to get a loan approved and funded, and whether you can apply with a co-signer.
• Transparency: This category included how transparent Backed was about both how to get approved for a loan and what rates and fees their loans have.
• Customer satisfaction: We checked with the BBB, CFPB and WalletHub’s users to find out information on Backed’s reputation.

from Wallet HubWallet Hub


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Posted by: Adam McCann

Peerform Review Summary: Peerform offers personal loans through peer-to-peer lending, which means that they connect borrowers with investors who are willing to extend them loans. Borrowers have to meet a minimum set of requirements, which include a FICO score of 600+, a Social Security number and an active bank account, in order to qualify.

Peerform will do a soft credit inquiry to see if an interested borrower meets their minimum standards for a loan. If they do, Peerform assigns them a grade based on their credit, income and other factors. This demonstrates the risk of the loan for investors. The borrower may also be able to pick from several options of loan lengths and corresponding rates. From there, the borrower posts their “loan inquiry” on the Peerform marketplace for two weeks and waits to see if it gets funded. If the loan gets successfully funded, Peerform does a hard credit inquiry to finalize the process. Assuming the loan gets approved, the borrower then makes payments to Peerform, which distributes money to the investors.

Peerform offers three types of loans: 3-year personal loans (for any purpose), 3-year debt-consolidation loans and 5-year debt consolidation loans. Interest rates vary between the three types, but Peerform’s lowest rate is 5.99% and its highest is 29.99%. Peerform also charges origination fees of 1% to 5% of the loan amount. For more information on the terms of Peerform loans and how they compare to other lenders, read on.

Peerform Personal Loan Terms

3-year personal loan APRs	5.99% - 29.99%
3-year debt consolidation loan APRs	5.99% - 25.05%
5-year debt consolidation loan APRs	12.57% - 21.95%
Borrowing timeline	3 or 5 years
Amount of funding	$4,000 - $25,000
Approval/funding timeline	1 – 14 days
Origination fee	1% to 5%
Early payoff fee	$0
Late payment fee	$15 or 5% of payment, whichever is greater
Unsuccessful payment fee	$15
Pay-by-check fee	$15
Credit score requirement	600
Minimum income requirement	Not disclosed
Other qualifications (must meet all)	18+ years old U.S. citizen or permanent resident SSN Bank account Live in one of the 45 states Peerform services
States Peerform does not service	CT, ND, VT, WV, WY

Peerform Loan Rates & Fees

Each type of Peerform loan has a different interest rate range. For three-year personal loans, it’s 5.99% - 29.99%. For three-year debt consolidation loans, it’s 5.99% - 25.05%. And for five-year debt consolidation loans, it’s 12.57% - 21.95%. The better your credit score is and the more money you make, the better chance you’ll have of qualifying for a low Peerform interest rate.

An APR of 5.99% is one of the lowest rates on the market, but Peerform’s maximum rates aren’t the cheapest around. However, that’s to be expected, considering Peerform will lend to people with bad credit. Peerform has fixed interest rates, so you’ll have the same rate during the entire payoff period of the loan.

Like its APRs, Peerform’s origination fees also depend on the type of loan. For both three-year personal loans and three-year debt consolidation loans, the fee can range between 1% and 5% of the loan amount. Five-year debt consolidation loans have a flat fee of 5%.

Peerform will also charge a fee for late payments of $15 or 5% of the payment amount, whichever is greater. But they will only charge this fee if you are 15 days late. In addition, Peerform has a $15 unsuccessful payment fee and a $15 fee if you pay by check rather than by direct deposit. There is no prepayment fee (a fee for paying off your loan early).

Peerform Requirements & Application Details

To qualify for a personal loan from Peerform, you will need to live in one of the 45 states in which they do business. The only states where they don’t offer loans are Connecticut, North Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. You also must have a credit score of at least 600. Peerform does not mention any minimum income requirement, but you will have to provide proof of income on your application. You don’t need to be employed, as long as you have some alternate form of income.

Applicants for Peerform personal loans must be a minimum of 18 years old. They must also have a Social Security number and be a U.S. citizen or permanent resident of the U.S. All applicants need to have an active bank account as well.

Peerform has a pre-qualification process, which they call their “borrower registration.” After you put in some personal information like your address and income, Peerform will let you know whether you meet their minimum requirements and what rates you qualify for. This process only uses a soft credit inquiry, so it won’t hurt your credit score. From there, you’ll have the opportunity to list your loan offer on the Peerform site to see if investors will lend to you. If your loan receives the required amount of funding, Peerform will then do a hard credit pull to finalize the process. This will cause your credit score to experience a slight drop.

The only way to apply with Peerform is online, and you cannot submit a joint application.

Peerform Reviews & Transparency

Oportun is far less transparent than most personal loan providers. They’re not open about overall interest rates or fees. Customers can use the company’s pre-qualification tool to estimate their own terms, though. Below, you can see what other sources have to say about Oportun.

• Better Business Bureau: Peerform isn’t BBB-accredited, but it does have an “A” score from the bureau.
• WalletHub: Since Peerform isn’t a direct lender, WalletHub awards their loans 3.5/5 stars.

It’s very easy to find out about Peerform’s fees and interest rates, as the company lists them clearly. Plus, Peerform openly says that 600 is their minimum credit score and provides a means for pre-qualification. They have a pretty good reputation, too.

Peerform Personal Loans vs. Other Peer-to-Peer Lenders

Lender	Peerform	LendingClub	Upstart
APR range	5.99% - 29.99%	6.95% - 35.89%	7.69% - 35.99%
Borrowing timeline	3 or 5 years	36 or 60 months	36 or 60 months
Amount of funding	$4,000 - $25,000	$1,000 - $40,000	$1,000 - $50,000
Credit score minimum	600	600-640*	620*

*According to multiple third-party sources

Methodology

WalletHub’s rating of loans from Peerform drew from scores in seven general categories, which each contained several metrics. Below, you can find a list of all the categories and a description of the metrics considered.

• APR: WalletHub found out the interest rate ranges on all types of Peerform loans, along with whether Peerform’s APRs are variable or fixed.
• Fees: We checked what fees Peerform charges their loan customers, such as origination fees, fees for late payments, and fees for paying a loan off early.
• Loan amounts: We learned what dollar amounts are available through Peerform, plus how many years customers can take to pay loans off.
• Transparency: To determine Peerform’s transparency, we looked at how easy it is to find out Peerform’s loan terms and their minimum qualifications.
• Requirements: WalletHub got information on Peerform’s minimum qualifications, including what credit score you have to have and how much money you need to make. We also learned about what Peerform requires when it comes to citizenship and tax ID numbers.
• Application process: This category included learning about the pre-qualification process as well as the final application and approval process. And we found out the amount of time it takes to get approved and receive the loan.
• Customer satisfaction: We measured customer satisfaction by looking at Peerform’s BBB score and WalletHub reviews. We also checked if there were any complaints on file with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

from Wallet HubWallet Hub


via Finance Xpress

You won’t find any animals at this zoo but you will find a wildly innovative way to teach your kids about money and personal finance. Here’s how to turn your little cubs into little bankers.

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If you’re anything like me, you look for ways to teach your kids practical lessons. That means my toddler helps clean up his own spilled milk. And my elementary-aged daughter gets an allowance so she can learn to manage money. We’ve done the allowance thing ever since I read The Opposite of Spoiled.

But we’ve struggled to regularly fund her spending, saving, and giving jars. We almost never keep cash on hand, and we are rarely at an actual ATM to get it out. (Virtual deposits and auto-paid bills, anyone?) So we begin using play money to represent the money she can spend. Except then that gets confusing when she spends from our debit card to get a better deal on Amazon (just like her mama!). And even more confusion arises when she gets actual cash for her birthday.

Enter FamZoo. This online service makes it easy for kids to learn about managing money by actually doing it. Because it’s highly visual, even little kids can understand their balances and spending patterns. And it makes things super simple for mom and dad, too.

What is FamZoo?

FamZoo is an online virtual family bank. It helps busy parents teach their kids good money habits. And it’s not just a static tool either. It lets parents teach their kids through hands-on practice. That includes teaching them to earn, save, spend, and give money wisely.

FamZoo was founded by Bill Dwight back in 2006 to teach his own children about personal finance. A Princeton graduate, he has been working in the software and internet businesses for more than 20 years. FamZoo represented an opportunity for him to merge his three greatest passions–his kids, building software, and promoting the importance of learning from strong role models.

With FamZoo, you act as the banker while your children represent customers. Through the use of either an IOU or a prepaid card account, your kids can access their own accounts, which you can see via a shared online dashboard.

What makes FamZoo unique is that it allows you to teach your kids about money based on your own values, rather than from a generic set of parameters. The system enables you to set up allowances, rewards for chores around the house, and even a form of payroll withholding to encourage savings and charitable giving.

It also allows for penalties for missed work assignments, enables parents to pay interest on their kids’ savings, does expense sharing and matching contributions, and even lets kids take out loans. The idea is to simulate a real-world banking and financial environment, but one over which you have complete control. In that way, you can teach your children exactly what you think is most important.

How Does FamZoo Work?

How it works depends on whether you are managing your kids’ funds through IOU accounts or prepaid cards.

IOU accounts track the money you’re holding on behalf of your children. The current balance in an IOU account is the amount you “owe” your children as a result of the money in those bank accounts. Your child can also have IOUs for money that they owe you for expense sharing or other things you might decide to set up.

The prepaid card accounts are similar, but they give a way for children to actually spend their money on their own card and to record where they’ve spent their money. The prepaid card works like your own debit card, except that you, as the parent, can see everything your child is spending money on.

Signing Up for an Account

Signing up for FamZoo will depend on which method you decide to use–IOUs or prepaid cards. If you sign up for an IOU, you’ll first register your family and choose a family sign-in name. Next, you’ll create a password and add your email and phone number. Then you register each of your children separately, and they choose their own login and password.

The next step is setting up a “bank” for each child using the setup wizard. Then you can do things like set up automatic payments for your child’s allowance, spending allocations for certain items, and more. You can follow, for instance, a pre-determined Spend/Save/Give program like the one I use with my daughter. Or you can set up allocations in a way that best aligns with your family’s values. Once you’re set up, you just monitor the account’s activity.

The “money” in the IOU account is all virtual and representative. So your child will actually wind up getting cash or spending on your own debit or credit card when they want to spend their money.

Signing up for a prepaid card gives your child real money, so be sure they can keep track of the card. Setting up the account is similar, except that you’ll have to decide how to actually fund the prepaid card. You can use Visa, MasterCard, American Express, or PayPal. Then you can order a card for each of your children. The first four cards are free.

The cards will arrive in the mail, and you can activate them online and select a PIN for each card, just like you would do for a regular debit card. Then your child can use the card to spend in a way that aligns with your goals.

Other Features

FamZoo is really meant to work just like a regular bank. You can, for instance, set up parent-paid interest to encourage your kids to save their money. You can also allow children to pull from their savings as a loan, but then pay it back with interest. Another feature is the ability to set up a parent-paid investment account to help your kids see the power of investing.

You can set up FamZoo to just be an allowance management system, so that you pay your kids a set amount of money monthly or weekly. But you can also set up online chore charts. When kids complete the chores, they get paid. When they don’t complete the chores, you can dock their allowance. Or you can give kids a special fund for a specific purpose, like buying back-to-school clothes, and earmark that money for that specific purchase.

Finally, you can help your kids set up and keep track of their budgets, so they know where their money is going and make wise choices.

Like all the best financial management tools these days, FamZoo has a mobile app that works with Apple and Android devices. This lets you see how your kids are managing their money from anywhere.

FamZoo Pricing

For IOU accounts, the first two months are free, and you don’t have to enter any payment information. After the trial period, the IOU account fee is $5.99 per month for the entire family. However, if you pay in advance, you can pay $30 for one year, which is just $2.50 per month.

Prepaid card accounts have a similar fee structure, but you can pay just $2.50 per month, by prepaying $59.99 for 24 months. Also, the first three months are free with the prepaid card account.

You can cancel your subscription at any time without any further obligation.

All payments are handled through PayPal, so FamZoo retains no information that could potentially be compromised in an identity theft situation.

Security

FamZoo doesn’t hold your passwords and other personal information, so it’s a secure website. And if you create an IOU account, there isn’t real money at stake, so you can definitely feel secure.

And security is pretty tight even for the prepaid card accounts. With these accounts, your information is stored with TransCard, a credit card processor certified by the MasterCard Network that uses the latest security protocols for its customers.

You might also be wondering about getting kids their own debit cards. Is that even possible? Yes. Teenagers can get cards of their own in their own names, though some documentation and verification is required. Children under the age of 12, however, cannot have their own cards but can have a separate card in their parent’s name to make their own purchases or donations.

FamZoo Mobile App

The FamZoo mobile app is available for Apple and Android, and it has excellent user ratings. It lets parents log in to check their kids spending and chore habits. Parents can even approve chores that are checked off before actually paying their kids for them. And kids can log in to see how much money they have available and what chores they can do to earn money.

Customer Service

FamZoo has a robust FAQ section that answers a great many questions. But you can also contact them on their website, and you can typically expect an email response within an hour or two–even on the weekends.

Pros and Cons of FamZoo

Alternatives to FamZoo

There are a couple of alternative options to FamZoo. One simpler option is called Bankaroo. It was developed by a kid for kids, so its target audience is a little younger. They say most of their customers are in the 5 to 14 range, while FamZoo’s more complicated possibilities caters to older elementary-aged children and teenagers.

PiggyBot is another option, though it’s only available on Apple devices. It is similar in that it’s a simple way to track spending, saving, giving, and to help kids save towards goals.

Bankaroo’s paid versions allow for kids to manage bank accounts and actual money, but PiggyBot only tracks money virtually. It works more like FamZoo’s IOU system.

Who is FamZoo For?

If you’re the parent of an older child, FamZoo can be a great option for helping that child manage his or her money. With all the complex options available, you can build in some real teaching moments without spending a lot of time doing it.

If you’re less interested in some of the features like paying your kids interest or automating their payments, you might opt for a free and less complicated option like Bankaroo. But if you want to be able to layer on these other functions to really dig into what money management looks like with your kids, FamZoo is definitely for you.

Bottom Line – Is FamZoo Worth Trying?

In order to teach children anything today, you have to compete with a lot of exciting distractions–such as TV, smart phones, video and online games, and all that is available on the web itself. FamZoo lets parents tap into most of those venues while teaching your kids about finance. In a way, FamZoo turns learning personal finance into a game, and kids learn a lot more effectively through games than they do by sitting in a classroom or through lectures from parents.

The parenting features are especially interesting. In an era of near zero interest rates, this feature allows you to incentivize your children saving money. Do you think that will come in handy later in their lives?

Given how important learning personal finance is, in combination with the fact that they can’t learn it anywhere else, FamZoo looks less like a typical paid service and more like a low-cost opportunity to teach your children something that will have a serious impact on the rest of their lives.

Check out that opportunity at FamZoo; I think you’ll agree.

Topics: Credit Cards

The post FamZoo: An Online Tool to Teach Kids About Money appeared first on The Dough Roller.

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On nights when you are busy, having a freezer meal ready to go is one of the best ways to feed you and your family. So, to help you get ready for your week, I have 10 easy freezer meal recipes for you to try, from breakfast burritos to meatless shepherd’s pie.

Freezer meals are simply meals you prep and cook in advance, stick in the freezer, and pull out to reheat when you need them. They are simple, healthy, and help you save money.

If you’ve never made freezer meals before, here are a few tips:

• Batch cook several meals at once.
• Label your meals with reheating directions.
• Use freezer quality bags so your food doesn’t get freezer burn.
• Make a list of what freezer meals you have and put it on your fridge or somewhere else that’s easy to see.

Trust me, these meals are nothing like the frozen dinners you would buy from the store – home cooked always tastes better (the from scratch Hot Pockets on this list look delicious!).

And, one of the best things about these easy freezer meal recipes is that you can save a lot of money on your monthly food budget. You will be less likely to get fast food or take out when you know that you have a delicious meal at home that you just need to pop in the oven or microwave.

For more recipe roundups, check out:

• 10 Meatless Monday Recipes You Should Try
• 10 Easy Homemade Snacks To Bring On Your Next Hike
• 10 Budget Recipes and Cheap Easy Meals You Should Try

Note: If you're looking for easy weekly meal plans, full of budget recipes, I recommend $5 Meal Plan. $5 Meal Plan is a meal planning service that sends you a delicious meal plan and shopping list every week for just $5 a month.

Here are 10 easy freezer meal recipes to try:

 

1. Healthy Homemade Hot Pockets

Get the recipe here.

 

2. Tuna Casserole

Get the recipe here.

 

3. Freezer Mac And Cheese

Get the recipe here.

 

4. Vegan Lentil Shepherd's Pie

Get the recipe here.

 

5. Crispy Cheddar Chicken

Get the recipe here.

 

6. Breakfast Burrito Bonanza

Get the recipe here.

 

7. Instant Pot Pumpkin And Plantain Curry

Get the recipe here.

 

8. Butternut Squash Soup

Get the recipe here.

 

9. DIY Frozen Breakfast Burritos

Get the recipe here.

 

10. Black Bean Taco Soup

Get the recipe here

Are you interested in making easy freezer meal recipes?

The post 10 Easy Freezer Meal Recipes appeared first on Making Sense Of Cents.

from Making Sense Of Cents


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Posted by: Adam McCann

Job hunting is never easy. Between searching for employment openings, updating résumés, contacting references and preparing for interviews, it’s hard work. Luckily, the number of opportunities available is growing, with over 263,000 new jobs added in April 2019 alone and the unemployment rate at the lowest it’s been since December 1969.

But finding a job can be even harder when you don’t know where to begin looking for work, which is why narrowing your search area can be important. And because that part requires a bit of research, WalletHub did the homework to help you focus on the most important task: finding your dream position in a place you’ll love.

In order therefore to determine the most attractive states for employment, WalletHub compared the 50 states across 33 key indicators of job-market strength, opportunity and a healthy economy. Our data set ranges from employment growth to median annual income to average commute time. Read on for our findings, methodology and insight from a panel of researchers.

For a more local breakdown of the job market, check out WalletHub’s ranking of the Best Places to Find a Job.

1. Main Findings
2. Ask the Experts
3. Methodology

Main Findings Embed on your website<iframe src="//d2e70e9yced57e.cloudfront.net/wallethub/embed/35641/geochart-statejobs.html" width="556" height="347" frameBorder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <div style="width:556px;font-size:12px;color:#888;">Source: <a href="http://bit.ly/2YZVch3>

Best States to Find a Job

Overall Rank (1 = Best)	State	Total Score	‘Job Market’ Rank	‘Economic Environment’ Rank
1	Massachusetts	71.88	1	16
2	Washington	68.26	11	1
3	Colorado	66.82	2	12
4	Vermont	64.73	3	18
5	New Hampshire	64.40	5	9
6	Minnesota	64.12	4	15
7	Delaware	63.83	6	14
8	New Jersey	62.92	28	2
9	California	60.84	7	25
10	Rhode Island	60.79	17	7
11	Nebraska	60.33	12	20
12	Texas	60.10	29	3
13	Connecticut	59.50	21	10
14	Virginia	59.08	13	22
15	Iowa	58.99	10	27
16	South Dakota	58.56	24	13
17	Tennessee	58.16	30	8
18	Utah	58.12	15	23
19	Nevada	57.60	25	19
20	New York	57.19	8	35
21	Florida	56.73	33	11
22	North Dakota	55.84	39	5
23	Wisconsin	55.61	22	28
24	Kansas	55.57	32	21
25	Idaho	55.46	14	36
26	Maryland	55.40	9	41
27	Arizona	55.40	18	29
28	Maine	54.69	16	37
29	Michigan	53.09	36	26
30	Hawaii	52.68	20	40
31	Illinois	51.92	31	34
32	New Mexico	51.91	45	17
33	Missouri	51.63	27	39
34	Wyoming	51.12	46	4
35	South Carolina	51.02	37	30
36	Georgia	51.01	23	43
37	Oklahoma	50.74	41	24
38	Indiana	49.85	35	38
39	Oregon	49.72	19	47
40	Ohio	48.97	40	31
41	Montana	48.93	38	33
42	North Carolina	48.85	34	42
43	Pennsylvania	46.56	26	49
44	Arkansas	45.30	42	44
45	Alabama	44.36	44	45
46	Alaska	44.19	50	6
47	Louisiana	43.91	47	32
48	Kentucky	37.90	43	50
49	Mississippi	37.15	48	46
50	West Virginia	34.83	49	48

Ask the Experts

The future of U.S. jobs relies on many factors, including policy and innovation. To gauge the possible effects of each and find ways to strengthen the economy, we asked a panel of experts to share their thoughts on the following key questions:

1. What types of jobs do you think are most threatened by automation/the rise of robots? What jobs are least threatened?
2. What policies can the Trump administration pursue to make good on its promise to increase jobs in coal and manufacturing?
3. What fields are expected to experience the highest rate of job growth in the next 10 years?
4. How much longer will the job report continue to show growth?
5. How can local policymakers help diversify and strengthen local economies?
6. Are there any models for re-training displaced workers that have proven successful?

< >

• Joe Eulberg Ph.D. – Assistant Professor, Human Resources, Marymount University
• Mark L. Lengnick-Hall Ph.D. – Professor Emeritus of Management, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio
• Anna A. Tavis Ph.D. – Clinical Associate Professor, Academic Director, Human Capital Management, Division of the Programs in Business, New York University
• Kate Bezrukova Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Organization and Human Resources, University at Buffalo School of Management
• Matthew Bluem MBA, Ph.D., Program Director of M.A. in International Development, Program Director of Bachelor of Science in Accounting, and Program Director of Human Resource Management, St. Mary's University of Minnesota

Methodology

In order to determine the best states for jobs, WalletHub compared the 50 states across two key dimensions, Job Market and Economic Environment. We assigned a heavier weight to the former, considering the factors in that category most heavily influence a job seeker’s decision in terms of relocation for employment.

We evaluated the two dimensions using 33 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the most favorable conditions for job seekers.

We then determined each state’s weighted average across all metrics to calculate its overall score and used the resulting scores rank-order our sample.

Job Market – Total Points: 60

• Job Opportunities: Double Weight (~3.87 Points)Note: This metric was calculated as follows: Number of Job Openings per Total Population in Labor Force – Unemployment Rate.
• Employment Growth: Triple Weight (~5.81 Points)Note: This metric measures the rate of annual job growth (adjusted by the working-age population growth).
• Unemployment Rate: Double Weight (~3.87 Points)
• Long-term Unemployment Rate: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures percentage of the unemployed who had been jobless for 27 weeks or longer.
• Underemployment Rate: Double Weight (~3.87 Points)
• Industry Variety: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)
• Employment Outlook: Triple Weight (~5.81 Points)Note: This metric is based on the Gallup's Job Creation Index.
• Automation Risk: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures the percentage of jobs at risk for automation.
• Job Security: Triple Weight (~5.81 Points)Note: This metric was calculated as follows: (Number of Employees in 2018 – Number of Employees in 2017) / Number of Employees in 2017.
• Job Satisfaction: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)
• Share of Engaged Workers: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric is based on Gallup’s “State of the American Workplace” report. Gallup defines engaged employees as those who are involved in, enthusiastic about and committed to their work and workplace.
• Employer-Based Retirement Access & Participation: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)
• Employee Benefits: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures the share of employees with private health insurance.
• Presence of Work-Share Programs: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This binary metric measures the presence or absence of state programs that allow employers to temporarily reduce work hours of employees instead of laying them off during economic downturns.
• Presence of State Nondiscrimination Laws & Policies: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures the presence or absence of state laws and policies that protect workers against discrimination based on their sexual orientation or gender.
• State’s Statute on Hiring Based on Salary History: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures the presence or absence of salary history bans in a state.
• Worker Protection Score: : Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: The policies include:
  • Protections for women who are pregnant and breastfeeding.
  • Mandates for equal pay, pay secrecy.
  • Leave for non-FMLA workers because of less time on the job; leave longer than federal FMLA.
  • Mandate for paid sick leave.
  • Protections around flexible scheduling, reporting pay, split shift pay, advance notice
  • Protections around sexual harassment.
• Share of Part-Time Employees: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures the number of part-time employees for every 100 full-time employees. A greater share of full-time employees is ideal.
• Availability of Internships: Double Weight (~3.87 Points)Note: This metric measures the number of internships per total civilian population aged 16 to 24 years in the labor force.
• 4+ Star Job Opportunities per Total People in Labor Force: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures the number of job opportunities at 4+ star rated companies on Glasssdoor.com per the total people in the labor force.
• Disability-Friendliness of Employers: Full Weight (~1.94 Points)Note: This metric measures the percentage of persons with disabilities who are employed.

Economic Environment – Total Points: 40

• Median Annual Income: Double Weight (~5.00 Points)Note: This metric was adjusted by the cost of living.
• Monthly Average Starting Salary: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
• Share of Workers Living in Poverty: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
• Average Length of Work Week (in Hours): Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
• Share of Workers with Multiple Jobs: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
• Average Commute Time (in Minutes): Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
• Commuter-Friendly Jobs (Number of Jobs Accessible by a 30-Minute Transit Ride): Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
• Earned Income-Tax Credit: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)Note: This binary metric measures the presence or absence of state earned income tax credit.
• State Income-Tax Burden for Low-Income Earners (as Share of Income): Double Weight (~5.00 Points)
• State Income-Tax Burden for Middle-Income Earners (as Share of Income): Double Weight (~5.00 Points)
• State Income-Tax Burden for High-Income Earners (as Share of Income): Double Weight (~5.00 Points)
• Working Moms & Dads Rankings: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)Note: This metric is based on WalletHub’s “Best & Worst States for Working Moms” & “Best & Worst States for Working Dads” reports.

Videos for News Use:

• YouTube (for web embedding National)
• YouTube (for web embedding Massachusetts)
• Raw files (for editing into clips)

 Sources: Data used to create this ranking were collected from U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Indeed.com, Gallup-Healthways, United Health Foundation, Brandwatch, The Pew Charitable Trusts, National Conference of State Legislatures, Chegg, Council for Community and Economic Research, Tax Credits for Workers and Their Families, ITEP, Movement Advancement Project, The Brookings Institution, Industry Dive, Oxfam America, Glassdoor, The Center for Neighborhood Technology and WalletHub research.

Image: Tero Vesalainen / Shutterstock.com

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There are a lot of barriers to changing your mind: ego, overconfidence, inertia — and cost. Politicians who flip-flop get mocked; family and friends who cross tribal borders are shunned. But shouldn’t we be encouraging people to change their minds? And how can we get better at it ourselves?

Listen and subscribe to our podcast at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or elsewhere. Below is a transcript of the episode, edited for readability. For more information on the people and ideas in the episode, see the links at the bottom of this post.

*     *     *

Here’s a riddle: name an activity that you probably don’t enjoy but may still spend 8 or 10 hours a week doing. Something you are compelled to do. By people who probably also don’t like doing this thing. Give up? I’m talking about meetings. When’s the last time you heard someone say, “That was an awesome meeting, a great use of time and full of pertinent information”? I’m guessing the answer is: never. So, for an upcoming episode on the science of meetings, we want to hear from you. Tell us about the worst meeting you ever attended, or maybe the worst meeting you ever ran. Or the best meeting. With lots of details, please. Also: your ideas for making meetings better. Make a brief audio recording — just use whatever voice-memo app is on your phone — and email the file to radio@freakonomics.com, with the subject line “meetings.” Please be sure to tell us your name, what you do, and where you’re from. Thanks.

*     *     *

Here’s an interesting fact: legislators in several Republican-controlled states are pushing to eliminate the death penalty. Why is that interesting? Because most Republicans have typically been in favor of the death penalty. They’ve said it’s a deterrent against the most horrific crimes and a fitting penalty when such crimes do occur. But a lot of Republicans have come to believe the death penalty does not deter crime — which happens to be an argument we offered evidence for in Freakonomics. They also say the lengthy legal appeals on death-penalty cases are too costly for taxpayers. Some Republicans also cite moral concerns with the death penalty. And so: a lot of them have changed their minds.We’ve all changed our minds at some point, about something. Maybe you were a cat person and became a dog person. Maybe you decided the place you lived, or the person you loved, or the religion you followed — that they weren’t working for you any more. But changing your mind is rarely easy; and it’s not something you set out to do. Although if you’re like most people, you would very much like other people to change their minds. To think more like you. Because as you see it, it’s impossible for the world to progress, to improve, unless some people are willing to change their minds. But like I said, it won’t be easy. Because changing your mind means admitting, on some level, that you used to be wrong. It can be seen as an act of weakness, even heresy.

*     *     *

Stephen J. DUBNER: Tell me something that you believed to be true for a long time until you found out you were wrong.

Robert SAPOLSKY: The list is endless. I used to be a very serious pianist, and I was one of the snot-nosed classical ones who was appalled by nightmares of Ethel Merman and trombones blasting in the background and who knows what else. And then the wonderful person I married turned out to be a musical-theater fanatic. And in fact, my wife is a musical-theater director.

DUBNER: So it wasn’t just a case of you accommodating out of love and familial attachment. Your actual preferences changed?

SAPOLSKY: Oh, I thrill at the excitement of seeing a bunch of barely-remembering-their-lines high-school students stumbling their way through Music Manor — actually, that’s not true, I still loathe Music Man.But I actually have come to like musicals a whole lot. She and I have done 19 of them now together, she’s directed I’ve been sort of the rehearsal pianist.

DUBNER: Oh boy, you really went — you crossed the border then, fully.

SAPOLSKY: Yes. Yes.

Who is this guy, and why should we care that he’s changed his mind?

SAPOLSKY: I’m Robert Sapolsky. I’m a professor of neuroscience at Stanford University, and I’m kind of half-neurobiologist, half-primatologist. For about 30 years, I’ve divided my time between your basic rat-lab neurons growing in petri dishes and then studying populations of wild baboons in the Serengeti in East Africa.

DUBNER: So considering that I’m not a neuroscientist — in fact, pretty much as far from it as could be — I do have a sense that the brain and the mind may be two separate things, but I’d love you to comment on the relationship between the two.

SAPOLSKY: I am completely of the school that mind is entirely the manifestation of brain. So when there’s a change in mind, there’s got to be a neurobiological underpinning.

Sapolsky, as he noted earlier, has changed his own mind quite a lot. He started early.

SAPOLSKY: I was raised as an Orthodox Jew in a major neighborhood specializing in that, in Brooklyn. And somewhere when I was about 14, something changed. And that change probably involved updating every molecule in my body, in that I sort of realized: this is nonsense, there’s no God, there’s no free will, there is no purpose. And I have not been capable of a shred of religiosity or spirituality ever since.

DUBNER: And was there a familial schism then?

SAPOLSKY: Oh, I was one of those terribly nerdy, scholarly, passive- aggressive kids where I never said a word about it to my highly religious and demanding father. And he went to his grave having no idea.

DUBNER: No kidding. How old were you when he died?

SAPOLSKY: In my thirties.

DUBNER: So had you come home and gone to Yom Kippur with him and faked it, or how did that work?

SAPOLSKY: Yeah. Yeah. And not just for the High Holy Days. I’m home for three days visiting and he’s not going to change, he doesn’t need this sort of headache or heartache at this point, so whatever. It just would have been very hurtful to someone of enormous importance to me.

One thing Sapolsky noticed about mind-changing is that it’s easier when you’re younger.

SAPOLSKY: Just noticing the general phenomenon that we get less open to novelty as we get older.

So he worked up a survey to look at people’s preferences in food, music, and so on.

SAPOLSKY: What you wind up seeing is basically if you are not listening to a certain style of music by the time you’re 28 or so, 95 percent chance you’re never going to. By age 35, if you’re not eating sushi, 95 percent chance you never will. In other words, these windows of openness to novelty close. But then as a biologist, the thing that floored me is, you take a lab rat and you look at when in its life it’s willing to try a novel type of food — and it’s the exact same curve! The equivalent of 10-year-old lab rats hate broccoli as much as 10-year-old humans do. And late adolescence, early adulthood, there’s this sudden craving for novelty. And that’s when primates pick up and leave their home troops and transfer into new ones. And then by the time you’re a middle-aged adult rat, you’re never going to try anything new for the rest of your life. It’s the exact same curve, which fascinated me.

DUBNER: Did it make you say, “My goodness, I’m biologically programmed to never want to try any new music, food, experience again, and therefore I’m going to push through that.” Or did you accept your fate?

SAPOLSKY: It had no impact on me whatsoever. I’m one of those scientist-professor types who’s capable of lecturing on a subject and paying no attention to what I’m saying. Like I’ve spent my whole life studying about the adverse effects of stress on your health and your psyche. And I’m the most frazzled, stressed person around. I’ve gleaned absolutely nothing useful from any of my life work.

There are a lot of reasons why it may be easier to change your mind when you’re younger. It could be the fact that your brain is simply more plastic then — something scientists assumed for a long time but now are starting to question. Or it could be that your positions are less entrenched, so it’s less costly to change them. Or it could be that the stakes are lower: the fate of the world doesn’t hinge on whether you are pro-broccoli or anti-broccoli. But as life goes on:

VOICEOVER: Now there’s nothing wrong with a little indecision.

As the stakes rise.

VOICEOVER: As long as your job doesn’t involve any responsibility.

Changing your mind can get more costly.

VOICEOVER: John Kerry has changed his mind on all these important issues.

When Massachusetts Senator John Kerry ran for President against the incumbent, George W. Bush, in 2004, Kerry’s campaign began to crater after it was shown that he’d changed his position — or at least his votes in the Senate — on a number of issues.

VOICEOVER: If you thought you could trust him, you might want to change your mind too.

Francis FUKUYAMA: So I think that’s the way politics itself works.

That’s Francis Fukuyama. He’s a political scientist at Stanford.

FUKUYAMA: My work really centers on research and practice about political institutions.

In 1992, Fukuyama wrote a book that became a sensation. It was called The End of History and the Last Man.

FUKUYAMA: In the late 1980s, as I was following events in the Soviet Union, I said well, to the extent that there is an end of history, it’s going to look like liberal democracy tied to a market economy.

In other words: democracy had essentially won. Not just the Cold War, but the future. And yet: a lot of the recent political momentum is going in the other direction: toward populism and authoritarianism, with a backlash against globalism.

DUBNER: So to what degree do you think your argument was wrong, or at least premature? How confident are you that what we’re seeing now is just a backlash and not actually a reversal or an entirely new strain?

FUKUYAMA: I am still reasonably confident. You know, the way I have formulated my hypothesis right from the beginning was that you needed to show not just that there was unhappiness with liberal democracy, but you needed to posit some other form of social organization that was superior, or that was somehow going to displace liberal democracy in the way that communism asserted that it would displace liberal democracy ultimately. And if you look around the world right now, there are competing systems that are not liberal or democratic. So the Chinese have one, Saudi Arabia and Iran have their versions of it. But I actually don’t think that any of those alternative models are likely to become universal in the way that liberal democracy has become, in a fairly impressive way, the default form of government for very many countries around the world.

So Fukuyama has not changed his mind about his most famous assertion — although he is open to it.

FUKUYAMA: If in 30 years, China’s bigger than the United States, richer, continues to be stable, continues to be growing faster, then I have to say well, maybe that is the alternative model.

But he did change his mind on something else. It goes back to that Bush-Kerry era, and the Iraq War.

VOICEOVER: In which direction would John Kerry lead? Kerry voted for the Iraq war, opposed it, supported it, and now opposes it again.

At the time, Fukuyama was well-established as a prominent political thinker. In addition to writing a landmark book, he’s done two stints in the State Department.So his views on the Iraq War were taken seriously.

FUKUYAMA: I signed onto a letter a couple of years before the war saying that the United States ought to take military action.

He wasn’t opposed to the U.S. desire to intervene and topple a dictator — in this case, Saddam Hussein.

FUKUYAMA: That’s happened in the past and it’s had good effects.

But as the invasion drew near, Fukuyama did have a concern.

FUKUYAMA: My main concern was whether the United States was ready to actually stay in Iraq and convert it into a stable, decent country. And the United States has not had a really great record in doing this, in Central America and Vietnam and so forth. And in the months prior to the war, I began to get increasingly worried that we weren’t prepared to actually stick it out. But even I was astonished at how bad the planning had been, and how faulty the assumptions were, that we were going to be greeted as liberators and that there would be a rapid transition just like in Eastern Europe to something that looked like democracy. In retrospect, I wish I had taken a much clearer stand against it before the war actually happened.

The U.S. invaded Iraq in March of 2003.

FUKUYAMA: I was at a dinner at the American Enterprise Institutein February of 2004.

The A.E.I. is a conservative think tank in D.C.

FUKUYAMA: Dick Cheney was the featured speaker and everybody in the room was cheering like this was the biggest success for American foreign policy, that they could imagine. And I just looked around at the people at my table and I said, “Why are these people clapping?” Because clearly this thing is turning into a huge fiasco. And that’s the moment that I decided these people are really nuts. I mean, they’re so invested in seeing this as a success that they can’t see this reality that’s just growing right in front of their eyes. And to this day — I mean it does seem strange to me that a lot of the people that were strong supporters of the war, even today, are not willing to admit that that was a mistake.

DUBNER: The investment that you’re describing, how would you characterize it? Was it more personal, do you think, or more political? Was the thinking more emotional or logical, and using logic to find facts that supported the underlying argument?

FUKUYAMA: Well, it’s both. I mean, there has been a lot of research in social psychology lately. Like, this model where people just take facts and draw conclusions from them and then base their opinions on that is completely wrong. I mean that’s just not the way people think. They start out with an emotional commitment to a certain idea, and then they use their formidable cognitive powers to organize facts to support what they want to believe anyhow. So the partisan affiliation comes first and then the reasoning process by which you justify it comes second. And unfortunately, affects all of us. We tend to see the world and cherry-pick facts that support our version of the world, and it takes a really big external shock that just clearly proves you wrong.

DUBNER: So I understand that even though you were seen as having defected from or abandoned the neoconservative movement, primarily over the Iraq war, that you were not met so warmly by the left, where you moved to. You said in 2006, “I’ve gotten many e-mails that said in effect, well you’re trying to apologize but you’ve got blood on your hands. We don’t accept your apology.”

FUKUYAMA: Yeah, it’s interesting, you’re seeing a similar process with a lot of other neocons right now. The neocons as a group have been the core of the never-Trump conservative movement, all of whom had been big supporters of the Iraq war and of George W. Bush, have really turned against Trump in a big way. And there are a lot of people that are not willing to accept them, they say, “It’s too late.” Exactly those words, “You have blood on your hands.” And I think that that is an unduly rigid position. Because in that case, no one should ever change their mind. They should never be hit on the head with reality and then realize that they’ve got a different position that they should take.

When we talk about changing your mind, we need to acknowledge that every situation is, of course, different. Let’s say someone in your family holds a position that you find odious. Why do you find it odious? Maybe you think they’re ignoring the facts. But can’t people hold different positions based on the same facts? Maybe you feel their position lacks moral reasoning. But who said morality is one-size fits all? Or maybe — just maybe — they hold the opposite position simply because it is the opposite.

Julia SHVETS: Suppose a person has some idea about something which doesn’t correspond to reality. It may be that they derive pleasure from having this idea in itself.

That’s Julia Shvets. She’s an economist at Christ’s College, Cambridge.

SHVETS: I study people’s decisions empirically in order to understand better what drives people.

And in the case of someone deriving pleasure from an idea that you disagree with:

SHVETS: In that case, you have to ask yourself whether it’s actually to their benefit for them to be changing their mind.

This idea, that we can be so invested in our beliefs even if we suspect they are wrong — Shvets has found evidence of this in her research.

SHVETS: The incorrect vision of the world may actually deliver some benefits to them.

And she’s found this effect not just in models or lab studies but out in the real world, where people are constantly making decisions about their work, their families, their lives.

SHVETS: It seems to be a very important question whether the beliefs we hold about the outside world are somehow connected to these beliefs about ourselves. When there is a link between these beliefs, it’s not so clear that we should be changing our minds, and what are the costs and benefits of this.

Consider, for instance, an expert who has dedicated their career to a certain policy or line of thinking. What happens in the face of new information? Do you seriously reconsider your long-held position, and go against the tide you’ve been swimming in?

FUKUYAMA: A lot of times you just feel uncomfortable if you say things that disrupt a consensus. And you just don’t want to do it.

Francis Fukuyama is recalling his change of mind on the Iraq war.

FUKUYAMA: A lot of my friends were very, very heavily on the other side. And I lost a lot of them, I haven’t spoken to several of these friends since then.

SHVETS: There are two separate questions, whether the person should change their mind and what the effects are for him, and then what the effects are of this for other people.

There’s another factor that Julia Shvets sees as contributing to our reluctance to change our mind: confidence. Or, more accurately, overconfidence — our own belief that we are right, even in the absence of evidence. Just how much unearned confidence is floating around out there? Consider a recent study by Shvets and some colleagues that surveyed over 200 managers at a British restaurant chain. They averaged more than two years on the job and their compensation was strongly tied to a performance bonus. I mention the bonus because it’s related to the survey that Shvets administered.The managers were asked to recall their past performance and to predict their future performance. Presumably, they should have had a pretty good grasp of their standing.

SHVETS: What we found is that only about 35 percent of managers were accurate about the quintile of the performance distribution they were falling into.

In other words:barely a third of them were able to correctly say whether they fell in the top 20 percent of all managers, or the bottom 20 percent, or another 20-percent block somewhere in the middle.

SHVETS: And 47 percent of managers were overconfident about it.

And these were people who had detailed feedback about their performance every quarter. Which is a lot more than most employees get.

SHVETS: So the next question we asked is: how is it possible that people remain so overconfident when they have so much information?

This is where memory comes into play, or maybe you’d call it optimism — or delusion.

SHVETS: People who did worse in the previous competition tended to remember slightly better outcomes. People seem to be exaggerating their own past performance in their head when this performance is bad. So what we conclude from this is that people use memory selectively. They remember good outcomes and they tend to forget bad ones.

So maybe it’s not so much that people refuse to change their minds — or refuse to “update their priors,” as economists like to say. Maybe they just have self-enhancing selective memories.

SHVETS: The data we observe are consistent with them making a choice to suppress some past information.

But there’s also the possibility that people who’ve been at something for a while, who may consider themselves expert, simply don’t believe that non-experts have information worth paying attention to.

FUKUYAMA: So I was in the State Department, in the policy planning staff, in 1989.

Francis Fukuyama again.

FUKUYAMA: And in May of 1989, after there had been this turmoil in Hungary and Poland, I drafted a memo to my boss, Dennis Ross, who was the director of the office that sent it on to Jim Baker, who was the Secretary of State, saying we ought to start thinking about German unification, because it didn’t make sense to me that you could have all this turmoil right around East Germany and East Germany not being affected. The German experts in the State Department went ballistic at this. You know, they said, “This is never going to happen. And this was said at the end of October. The Berlin wall fell on November 11th. And so I think that the people that were the closest to this situation — so I was not a German expert at all but it just seemed to me logical. But I think it’s true that if you are an expert, you really do have a big investment in seeing the world in a certain way, whereas if you’re an amateur like me you can say whatever you think.

As you can see, there are a lot of reasons why a given person might be reluctant to change their mind about a given thing. Ego, selective memory, overconfidence, the cost of losing family or friends. But let’s say you remain committed to changing minds — your own or someone else’s. How do you get that done? The secret may lie not in a grand theoretical framework, but in small, mundane objects:

SLOMAN: Toilets and zippers and ballpoint pens.

*     *     *

Think of something you have a really strong opinion about. Maybe the best ways to address climate change. The perils of income inequality. How to balance privacy and security. Now think about why you have such a strong opinion. How well do you think could you explain your position?

Steven SLOMAN: If you’re forced to give an explanation, you have to really understand, and you have to confront the fact that you might not understand. Whereas when you give reasons, then you do what people do around the Thanksgiving dinner table. They talk about their feelings about it, what they like, what they don’t like.

That’s Steven Sloman.

SLOMAN: I’m a professor of cognitive, linguistic, and psychological sciences at Brown University.

DUBNER: And that means, in a nutshell, that you try to understand what?

SLOMAN: I try to understand how people think.

DUBNER: Easy question first: How do you get someone to change their mind?

SLOMAN: Well, first of all, there’s no silver bullet. It’s really hard. But if you’re going to try, the first thing you should do is try to get them to change their own minds. And you do that by simply asking them to assume your perspective and explain why you might be right. If you can get people to step outside themselves and think about the issue — not even necessarily from your perspective, but from an objective perspective, from one that is detached from their own interests — people learn a lot. So, given how hard it is for people to assume other people’s perspectives, you can see why I started my answer by saying it’s very hard.

One experiment Sloman has done is asking people to explain — not reason, as he pointed out, but to actually explain, at the nuts-and-bolts level — how something works.

SLOMAN: People don’t really like to engage in the kind of mechanistic analysis required for a causal explanation.

That’s true not only for big, thorny issues like climate change or income inequality, but even for things like:

SLOMAN: Toilets and zippers and ballpoint pens.

Unless you are a plumber or you make zippers or ballpoint pens, you probably can’t explain these very well. Even though, before you were asked the question, you would have thought you could. This gap, between what you know and what you think you know is called, naturally, the “illusion of explanatory depth.”

SLOMAN: So, the illusion of explanatory depth was first demonstrated by a couple of psychologists named Rozenblit and Keil. And they asked people how well they understood how these things worked, and people gave a number between 1 and 7. And then they said, “Okay, how does it work? Explain in as much detail as you can how it works.” And people struggled and struggled and realized they couldn’t. And so when they were again asked how well they understood, their judgments tended to be lower. In other words, people themselves admitted that they had been living in this illusion, that they understood how these things worked, when, in fact, they don’t.

Where does this illusion come from?

SLOMAN: We think the source of the illusion is that people fail to distinguish what they know from what others know. We’re constantly depending on other people, and the actual processing that goes on is distributed among people in our community.

In other words, someone knows how a toilet works: the plumber. And you know the plumber; or, even if you don’t know the plumber, you know how to find a plumber.

SLOMAN: It’s as if the sense of understanding is contagious. When other people understand, you feel like you understand.

You can see how the illusion of explanatory depth could be helpful in some scenarios — you don’t need to know everything for yourself, as long as you know someone who knows someone who knows something. But you could also imagine scenarios in which the illusion could be problematic.

SLOMAN: So we’ve shown that that’s also true in the political domain.

Sloman and his collaborator Philip Fernbach basically repeated the Rozenblit and Keil experiment, but instead of toilets and zippers, they asked people about climate change and gun control.

SLOMAN: We gave people political policies. We said, “How well do you understand them?” and “Please explain them.”

Unsurprisingly, most people were not able to explain climate-change policies in much detail. But here’s what’s interesting. The level of confidence in their understanding of issues, which participants were asked to report at the start of the experiment, was drastically reduced after they tried, and failed, to demonstrate their understanding.

SLOMAN: In other words, asking people to explain depolarized the group.

Now, was this a case of simply slowing down and thinking the issue through? Could it be that we’re often inflexible in our thinking simply because we come to conclusions too quickly? Apparently not.

SLOMAN: If instead of saying, “Explain how the policy works,” if what we said to them was, “Give us all the reasons you have for your view on this policy,” then we didn’t get that effect at all. That didn’t reduce people’s sense of understanding; it didn’t reduce their hubris.

DUBNER: The ability to change your mind — would you say that’s really important as a human?

SLOMAN: I see the mind as something that’s shared with other people. I think the mind is actually something that exists within a community and not within a skull. And so, when you’re changing your mind you’re doing one of two things: you’re either dissociating yourself from your community — and that’s really hard and not necessarily good for you — or you have to change the mind of the entire community. And is that important? Well, the closer we are to truth, the more likely we are to succeed as individuals, as a species. But it’s hard.

DUBNER: Do you think that most of us hold the beliefs that we do because the people around us hold those beliefs, or do you think we’re more likely to assemble people around us based on the beliefs that they and we hold?

SLOMAN: The former is more often true. That is, we believe what we do because the people around us believe what they do. This is the way humanity evolved. We depend on other people. And it’s not simply a matter of getting us to think more independently. I actually think that this is one of the major problems with the kinds of solutions people are talking about today for our current political problems. I don’t think the solution is give people the information they need.

Matthew JACKSON: More information can be good if it’s very well-filtered and curated, but that’s not easy to do in an unbiased way.

That’s Matthew Jackson, an economist at Stanford. (Yes, I realize this episode is leaning heavily on Stanford professors.) Anyway, Matthew Jackson studies social and economic networks.

JACKSON: So, in particular, how the structure of social interactions affects people’s behaviors. Anything from how our opinions form to whether we decide to vote for a certain candidate.

Here’s something Jackson has changed his mind about:

JACKSON: One thing I used to think was that people, if you gave them the same kinds of information, they would make decisions the same way. They might have different experiences in their past, different influences. But somehow the fundamental ways in which they think about things and process things is the same.

That, however, is not what the data say.

JACKSON: The more you look at data, and in particular, the more you look at experiments where people are faced with facts or information, you realize that some people are very single-minded.

In one experiment, Jackson also asked people about climate change. He had everyone read the same batch of abstracts from scientific articles.

JACKSON: We asked people their opinions before they went in to the study, and you could see that people looking at exactly the same article would interpret it very differently depending on what their initial position was.

So again, information isn’t necessarily the solution. In fact, information can be weaponized.

JACKSON: There was a group of about a quarter to a third of the subjects who actually became more polarized, who interpreted the information heavily in the direction of their priors, and actually ended up with more extreme positions after the experiment than before.

We’ve talked about this phenomenon before on the show — that well-educated people who consume a lot of information tend to hold disproportionately extreme views, apparently because they’re really good at seeking out information that confirms their priors. And ignoring information that might run counter.

JACKSON: One aspect of people seeing exactly the same information and coming away with different conclusions is how we interpret and store information in our brains. It’s very easy to sort of snippet things into small little pieces that we can remember. “Oh, this was for or against.”

SLOMAN: We don’t like breaking things down in detail. We just — most of us like to have a superficial understanding.

Steven Sloman again.

SLOMAN: Why do you think Obamacare is good or bad, whatever you think about it? Now, the fact is, most people have very little to say about that. Most people just have a couple of slogans. They have the Republican slogan, they have the Democratic slogan; but they don’t actually know about Obamacare, because after all, it’s a 20,000-page document.

SLOMAN: I like to say even Obama doesn’t understand Obamacare.

But even if Obama does understand Obamacare, there’s the question of whether his understanding is unduly circumscribed by the people around him.

JACKSON: People tend to associate with other people who are very similar to themselves. So we end up talking to people most of the time who have very similar past experiences and similar views of the world, and we tend to underestimate that. People don’t realize how isolated their world is. You know, people wake up after an election and are quite surprised that anybody could have elected a candidate that has a different view than them.

So one antidote to inflexible thinking is simply balance.

JACKSON: In worlds where our network is well-balanced and we’re actually eventually incorporating everybody’s viewpoint, the system works extremely well.

Unfortunately, a great many of us are quite bad at creating diverse, well-balanced networks. And there’s a reason for this — a reason we struggle to listen to opposing voices and, therefore, have a hard time changing our minds.

SAPOLSKY: We are basically hardwired to divide the world into us and thems. And to not like the thems a whole lot.

That, again, is the half-neurobiologist, half-primatologist Robert Sapolsky, who’s changed his own mind many times.

SAPOLSKY: The domain that I’m most interested in these days is that change thing of turning thems into us-es — and how do we do that? And what the studies tend to show is: take somebody else’s perspective; try to go through what somebody else’s rationalizations are; individuate somebody, break them out of being an automatic them. And think about do they like the same pets that you do? Do they love their kids? Look at a picture of them singing lullabies to their children. Look at a picture of them enjoying the same food that you do. Contact — and this has been floating around for decades as a theory — give people, thems, enough contact with each other and they turn into us-es and it turns out contact works under very specialized circumstances. You’ve got to spend a bunch of time with thems. And us-es and thems need to be in equal numbers and in a neutral setting and you’ve got to have a shared sort of goal. I mean, all of these work to at least some degree. The peoples we hated in the past are allies now. There are outgroups that spent centuries being persecuted where we don’t even know what the word refers to anymore. And in all those cases, there’s something resembling biological pathways that help thems stop being so objectionable.

DUBNER: So before this conversation, if you had asked me what are the primary barriers that keep someone in a given situation from changing their mind, I would have certainly opted for the social and economic explanations. But it sounds as though you’re saying a larger share would go to the physiological and biological reasons, is that right?

SAPOLSKY: Well, the really irritating thing I would say is that the two are one and the same. We are nothing more or less than the sum of our biology. Every time you learn something, from something profound to something idiotic, something changes in your brain. Every time you have a sensory experience, your brain is constantly rewiring in major ways.

This idea — that the brain continues to change, physiologically, throughout our lives — this is yet another idea that Sapolsky himself had to change his mind about.

SAPOLSKY: Yeah, this is an aspect my field where I have missed the boat every step of the way. When I started off, this dogma had been in place for like 1,000 years’ worth of intro to neuroscience classes, which is: the adult brain doesn’t make new neurons. This is the basic premise of all the miserable, untreatable neurological diseases out there. And starting in the 60s, there was a one lone prophet named Joe Altman whose career was basically ruined because he was about 30 years ahead of the curve. And then in the late 80s, early 90s, some technique got a lot more sensitive and was able to show adult neurogenesis in the brain like crazy. And it became the hottest subject in the field. And I kept saying, “Ah, nah, that’s not a real phenomenon.” So I was — like really blew it on that one. It turns out that there’s a little pocket, a little population of stem cells, sitting in the hippocampus making new neurons. And what was even better was it made them at all the logical times — in response to learning, stimulation, exercise. And a ton of work showed that these new neurons actually are useful, and they are critical for new types of learning. So that ushered in this whole new world and then this beautiful new edifice of revisionism came potentially crashing down about a year ago. An extremely important and well-done paper that wound up in the journal Nature showed that despite the clear presence of tons of neurogenesis in rodent brains throughout the lifetime, in monkey brains, there was a lot of reason to think that not a lot of the same occurred in the human brain. And that a lot of the prior evidence for it was pretty circumstantial. And as you might expect, the specialists in the field have been stabbing each other over this one ever since. And it’s not clear what the resolution is.

It doesn’t get much more meta than that: a bunch of scientists changing their minds, and trying to change others’ minds, about whether the brain changes when we change our minds. Robert Sapolsky’s own research, about us-es and thems, led to one more change of mind, for Sapolsky.

SAPOLSKY: I would say the biggest thing that came out of that is I am in every fiber of my soul a profound pessimist, and sitting and obsessing for three, four years on what we know about the biological roots of humans being rotten to each other and humans being kind to each other, there’s actually a fair amount of room for optimism.

DUBNER: So your belief was that humans are disproportionately cruel to each other. That was the old belief, and the new belief is that that is not necessarily the case?

SAPOLSKY: It’s — well, we’re pretty lousy to each other, But the basic paradox of humans is simultaneously we are the most miserably violent species on this planet, and we are the most cooperative. We do stuff which from the standards of evolution and cooperation, game theory, all of that, would make stickleback fish just flabbergasted at how cooperative, how altruistic we are, how often we can do that for strangers. Each one of us, depending on the context can be awful, can be wonderful, or ambiguously somewhere in between.

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Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Dubner Productions. This episode was produced by Matt Hickey. Our staff also includes Alison Craiglow, Greg Rippin, Harry Huggins, Zack Lapinski, and Corinne Wallace. Our theme song is “Mr. Fortune,” by the Hitchhikers; all the other music was composed by Luis Guerra.You can subscribe to Freakonomics Radio on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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